České Budějovice 3-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Pardubice meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games (1.11 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.11 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.11 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 44% versus Pardubice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 44% | Pardubice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.53 xG and Pardubice 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.827 / defence 1.110 | Pardubice attack 0.784 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.338. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 České Budějovice games / 9 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 29%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 3.45. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 40% | Pardubice 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG České Budějovice 1.53 / Pardubice 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.827 / def 1.110 | Pardubice attack 0.784 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pardubice xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Pardubice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
České Budějovice 3 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Pardubice part of?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 46% chance of winning, Pardubice a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both České Budějovice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.83x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.78x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.95
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.70
1.16
Pardubice xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.16 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 3W 1D 5L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, České Budějovice are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Pardubice away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.50 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Pardubice 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for České Budějovice and 75% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of České Budějovice's games and 75% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of České Budějovice's matches and 75% of Pardubice's.
Do České Budějovice and Pardubice tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Pardubice 3-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.53 xG and Pardubice 1.16 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.37, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 46% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 29%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 44%, Pardubice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, České Budějovice arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.