České Budějovice 0-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Hradec Králové at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 2W 3D 5L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, České Budějovice have won 0, Hradec Králové 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 57% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 57% | Hradec Králové 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.28 xG and Hradec Králové 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.800 / defence 1.211 | Hradec Králové attack 0.834 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.379. Data: 42 České Budějovice games / 42 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 31% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 36%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 50% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 31% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG České Budějovice 1.28 / Hradec Králové 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.800 / def 1.211 | Hradec Králové attack 0.834 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Hradec Králové xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
České Budějovice 0 - 3 Hradec Králové.
Where is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové part of?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 31% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both České Budějovice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
31%
3.22
33%
3.07
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.67
1.39
Hradec Králové xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.39 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 13W 12D 19L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 15L across 44 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 9W 5D 8L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.25 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Hradec Králové away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.45 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 54%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (České Budějovice) and 54% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 32% of games; Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of České Budějovice's matches and 54% of Hradec Králové's.
Do České Budějovice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 0-3 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 0-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.28 xG and Hradec Králové 1.39 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Hradec Králové attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 31% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 36%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 57%, Hradec Králové 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.