Dukla Praha 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Dukla Praha welcome Bohemians 1905 to Stadion Juliska. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 July 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bohemians 1905's 1.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.27 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.840 / defence 1.329 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.000 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.273. Data: 1 Dukla Praha games / 31 Bohemians 1905 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 28% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 46%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 2.17. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 28% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Dukla Praha 1.27 / Bohemians 1905 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.840 / def 1.329 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.000 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bohemians 1905 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Dukla Praha 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
28%
3.64
26%
3.80
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.96
1.69
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.69 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dukla Praha have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dukla Praha
0
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dukla Praha's games and 100% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Dukla Praha's matches and 100% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.27 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.69 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.84 / defence 1.33 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 28% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 46%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dukla Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 100%, Bohemians 1905 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Dukla Praha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dukla Praha conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.