Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Zbrojovka Brno travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.50 PPG versus Zbrojovka Brno's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 46% versus Zbrojovka Brno 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Zbrojovka Brno 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.29 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.858 / defence 0.657 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.872 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.657 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Bohemians 1905 games / 11 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 50% | Draw 31% | Zbrojovka Brno 19%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Zbrojovka Brno 5.26. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 50% | Draw 31% | Zbrojovka Brno 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.29 / Zbrojovka Brno 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.858 / def 0.657 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.872 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Zbrojovka Brno xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 50% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 1 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.86) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
50%
1.98
31%
3.24
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
1.97
0.68
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
5%
19.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.68 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 3D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (6W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.64 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 2.20 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bohemians 1905 20% BTTS, Zbrojovka Brno 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bohemians 1905 and 40% for Zbrojovka Brno.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 40% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 40% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.