Bohemians 1905 2-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 28 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Teplice in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bohemians 1905 1W, Teplice 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 64% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 58% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.13 xG and Teplice 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.948 / defence 1.215 | Teplice attack 0.874 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.356. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Bohemians 1905 games / 46 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 23% | Teplice 25%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Teplice 4.00. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 23% | Teplice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Bohemians 1905 2.13 / Teplice 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.948 / def 1.215 | Teplice attack 0.874 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Teplice xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 53% chance of winning, Teplice a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.87x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.42
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.57
1.44
Teplice xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
3%
33.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.44 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 14D 23L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 14W 10D 29L from 53 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.98 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 5D 16L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.15 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 10D 29L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Teplice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.24 PPG; Teplice away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 64%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Bohemians 1905 and 72% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians 1905's games and 52% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 72% of Teplice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Teplice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Teplice in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Teplice 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.13 xG and Teplice 1.44 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 23% | Teplice 25%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 58%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.17 PPG, Teplice 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.