Bohemians 1905 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.67 PPG across 3 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 1L. Last five: D L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 2.33 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 100% and Sparta Praha 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 67% | Sparta Praha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG and Sparta Praha 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.903 / defence 1.210 | Sparta Praha attack 1.246 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.509. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Bohemians 1905 games / 3 Sparta Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 17% | Draw 19% | Sparta Praha 63%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Sparta Praha 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 100% | Sparta Praha 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 17% | Draw 19% | Sparta Praha 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.11 / Sparta Praha 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.903 / def 1.210 | Sparta Praha attack 1.246 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Sparta Praha xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 17% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.25x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
17%
5.74
19%
5.22
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.39
2.27
Sparta Praha xG
5.74
17%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
10%
9.72
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
2%
55.82
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 2.27 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 2.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 3.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Bohemians 1905, 33% for Sparta Praha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bohemians 1905 and 67% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bohemians 1905's games and 33% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 67% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG and Sparta Praha 2.27 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Praha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Sparta Praha attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 17% | Draw 19% | Sparta Praha 63%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 67%, Sparta Praha 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha managed 1 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.