Bohemians 1905 4-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.90 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Slovan Liberec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Slovan Liberec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.84 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.847 / defence 1.077 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.150 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 52%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Slovan Liberec 1.92. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Slovan Liberec 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.84 / Slovan Liberec 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.847 / def 1.077 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.150 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Slovan Liberec xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 4 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 21% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Record (6 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 3 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.85) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.15x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
21%
4.77
27%
3.75
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.33
1.49
Slovan Liberec xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
5%
21.17
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.49 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 22D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (21W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.32 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 8W 12D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.94 points per game from 31 outings (6W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 22D 25L in their last 62 games (1.08 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 21W 19D 22L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.16 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 52%, Slovan Liberec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bohemians 1905) and 45% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games; Slovan Liberec in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 55% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 45% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovan Liberec 4-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.84 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.15 / defence 0.73, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 52%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Slovan Liberec 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.08 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.