Bohemians 1905 0-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 3D 3L at Dolicek — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 46% versus Slavia Praha 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | Slavia Praha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG and Slavia Praha 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.938 / defence 0.852 | Slavia Praha attack 1.079 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.337. Data: 31 Bohemians 1905 games / 31 Slavia Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Slavia Praha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Slavia Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.05 / Slavia Praha 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.938 / def 0.852 | Slavia Praha attack 1.079 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Slavia Praha xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 7W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.08x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.20
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.28
1.23
Slavia Praha xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.23 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 11W 10D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 29W 3D 3L from 35 games, 2.57 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 11W 2D 3L from 16 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.26 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 29W 3D 3L in their last 35 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.31 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Slavia Praha 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 56%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 31% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 0-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG and Slavia Praha 1.23 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Slavia Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 39%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 49%, Slavia Praha 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.