Bohemians 1905 0-4 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Slavia Praha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Slavia Praha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.994 / defence 1.088 | Slavia Praha attack 1.077 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.142. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.625 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 38 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 47%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Slavia Praha 2.13. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 70% | Slavia Praha 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.88 / Slavia Praha 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.994 / def 1.088 | Slavia Praha attack 1.077 / def 0.625 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Slavia Praha xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 4 Slavia Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 24% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Record (6 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 6W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.08x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
24%
4.12
28%
3.52
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.34
Slavia Praha xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.34 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 15D 17L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 33W 8D 2L from 43 games, 2.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.37 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 13W 6D 1L from 20 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.14 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 33W 8D 2L in their last 43 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.20 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Slavia Praha 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bohemians 1905) and 40% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 50%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 45% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 40% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 0-4 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.34 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Slavia Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.62, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 47%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Slavia Praha 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.