Bohemians 1905 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 38%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | Plzen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.299. Data: 1 Bohemians 1905 games / 1 Plzen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.33 / Plzen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | Plzen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Plzen xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 38% chance of winning, Plzen a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Plzen (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.96x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.79
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.60
1.27
Plzen xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.27 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Bohemians 1905's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Plzen in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Plzen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bohemians 1905's games and 100% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 100% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Plzen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Plzen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 0%, Plzen 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.