Bohemians 1905 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Bohemians 1905, 0.80 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pardubice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 64% and Pardubice 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 61% | Pardubice 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.87 xG and Pardubice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.827 / defence 1.259 | Pardubice attack 0.874 / defence 1.969. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.969 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Bohemians 1905 games / 30 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Pardubice 4.17. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Pardubice 70% BTTS from recent games.

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