Bohemians 1905 2-0 Opava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Opava at 36%, yet in-form Bohemians 1905 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Opava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round as Bohemians 1905 welcome Opava to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Ďolíček — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Opava — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Opava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bohemians 1905, 0 for Opava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG and Opava 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.839 / defence 1.247 | Opava attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.085. Data: 30 Bohemians 1905 games / 0 Opava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 29% | Opava 36%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Opava 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Opava are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Opava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Opava | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 29% | Opava 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.11 / Opava 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.839 / def 1.247 | Opava attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Opava (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Opava xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Opava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Opava kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Opava?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Opava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Opava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Opava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Opava is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Opava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Opava a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Opava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Opava?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Opava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Opava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Opava?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 0 | Opava 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Opava in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Opava (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Opava's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Opava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Opava Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
Opava xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Opava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Opava expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.15 for Opava, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Opava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Opava, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Opava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians 1905 by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Opava heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Opava are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Opava in 0%.
Defensively: Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Opava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Opava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Opava have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Bohemians 1905 or Opava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Opava in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
0
Opava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Opava?
From 2 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Opava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Opava last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Opava.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Opava?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Opava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Opava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 0% of Opava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Opava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 0% of Opava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Opava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Opava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Opava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Opava 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG and Opava 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Opava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Opava attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 29% | Opava 36%, with Opava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 0%, Opava 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Opava shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.