Bohemians 1905 4-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bohemians 1905. A 1.00 PPG lead over Mlada Boleslav (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bohemians 1905, 2 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 3–4 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 60% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 55% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.61 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.983 / defence 1.074 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.887 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.297. Data: 56 Bohemians 1905 games / 56 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Mlada Boleslav 3.45. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Mlada Boleslav lead the H2H ledger, but Bohemians 1905 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.61 / Mlada Boleslav 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.983 / def 1.074 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.887 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Bohemians 1905 4 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 46% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.98x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.89x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.87
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.85
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.24 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 22W 14D 24L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 24L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 11W 4D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.37 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 60%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 60% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bohemians 1905's games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Mlada Boleslav 4-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.61 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 29%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 55%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.33 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.