Bohemians 1905 2-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mlada Boleslav are 0.60 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 58% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 62% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.897 / defence 1.228 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.757 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.167. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Bohemians 1905 games / 24 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 60% | Mlada Boleslav 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.25 / Mlada Boleslav 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.897 / def 1.228 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.757 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mlada Boleslav xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.90x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.76x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.57
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.34
1.08
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.08 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 6W 4D 14L from 24 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 12L across 24 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.25 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 5W 1D 5L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 3W 1D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.54 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 4D 14L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 9W 3D 12L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.45 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 64%, Mlada Boleslav 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians 1905) and 36% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 46% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 36% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.08 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.90 / defence 1.23 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 62%, Mlada Boleslav 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 0.92 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.