Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 39%, yet in-form Baník Ostrava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 4 for Baník Ostrava and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Baník Ostrava 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.825 / defence 0.857 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.910 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 36 Bohemians 1905 games / 35 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Baník Ostrava 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.19 / Baník Ostrava 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.825 / def 0.857 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.910 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Baník Ostrava xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 3 | Baník Ostrava 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.82) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.31
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.19
1.00
Baník Ostrava xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.00 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (11W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.05 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 39%, Baník Ostrava 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games; Baník Ostrava in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 39% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.