Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baník Ostrava haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Baník Ostrava have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Bohemians 1905.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 47% versus Baník Ostrava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | Baník Ostrava 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.931 / defence 1.000 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.052 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.321. Data: 30 Bohemians 1905 games / 30 Baník Ostrava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 42%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | Baník Ostrava 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.15 / Baník Ostrava 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.931 / def 1.000 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.052 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Baník Ostrava xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (8 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 3 | Baník Ostrava 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.93) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.73
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.54
1.39
Baník Ostrava xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.39 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 10D 14L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 2.09 PPG from 34 outings (22W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. Baník Ostrava haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 4W 6D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.88 points per game from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.68 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Pre-Season
Baník Ostrava
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 22W 5D 7L in their last 34 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.12 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 56%, Baník Ostrava 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Bohemians 1905) and 56% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 38%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 31% of games; Baník Ostrava in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 44% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.39 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 42%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Baník Ostrava 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.