Baník Ostrava 5-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zlin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava and Zlin meet at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baník Ostrava's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.00 vs 0.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Zlin in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Zlin 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | Zlin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.431. Data: 1 Baník Ostrava games / 1 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 26% | Zlin 43%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 26% | Zlin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.15 / Zlin 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | Zlin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Zlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Zlin xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Zlin kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Baník Ostrava 5 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 31% chance of winning, Zlin a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Zlin in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Zlin (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.85x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
31%
3.23
26%
3.78
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.55
1.40
Zlin xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.40 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 0.00 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Zlin in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Zlin in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Zlin have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 0% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 0% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Zlin tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Zlin in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 5-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Zlin 1.40 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Zlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 26% | Zlin 43%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 0%, Zlin 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 0.00 PPG, Zlin 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava scored 5 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.