Baník Ostrava 2-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Baník Ostrava have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Baník Ostrava: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Teplice, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Baník Ostrava and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 48% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 50% | Teplice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.63 xG and Teplice 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.091 / defence 0.799 | Teplice attack 0.869 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.207. Baník Ostrava's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Baník Ostrava games / 52 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 40% | Teplice 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.63 / Teplice 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.091 / def 0.799 | Teplice attack 0.869 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Teplice xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 56% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Record (6 meetings): Baník Ostrava 5W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.05
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.46
0.84
Teplice xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
26.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.84 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 27W 10D 19L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 17W 13D 26L from 56 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.07 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 10D 19L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Teplice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.74 PPG; Teplice away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Teplice in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 44%, Teplice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Baník Ostrava) and 56% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 56% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 56% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Teplice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Teplice in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 2-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.63 xG and Teplice 0.84 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.09 / defence 0.80 against Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 50%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.