Baník Ostrava 1-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 57% versus Sigma Olomouc 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 55% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.847 / defence 0.898 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.839 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Data: 53 Baník Ostrava games / 53 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 25%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 4.00. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 40% | Sigma Olomouc 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.33 / Sigma Olomouc 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.847 / def 0.898 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.839 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sigma Olomouc xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (4 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.20
30%
3.36
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.91 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 13D 24L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.34 PPG from 58 outings (20W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 4D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.38 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 52%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Baník Ostrava) and 45% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Baník Ostrava 1-2 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 25%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 55%, Sigma Olomouc 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.