Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Pardubice travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 2D 5L at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Pardubice's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Baník Ostrava have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Pardubice have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Baník Ostrava and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 43% versus Pardubice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Pardubice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Pardubice 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.878 / defence 1.028 | Pardubice attack 1.161 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Baník Ostrava games / 48 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 38%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Baník Ostrava dominate the H2H record, yet Pardubice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 40% | Pardubice 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.43 / Pardubice 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.878 / def 1.028 | Pardubice attack 1.161 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Pardubice xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 4 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 36% chance of winning, Pardubice a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 6W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.87
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
Pardubice xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.47 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 10D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.87 PPG from 53 outings (11W 13D 29L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 15W 3D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.46 points per game from 26 outings (2W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.89 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 25W 10D 18L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 11W 13D 29L in their last 53 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Pardubice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.85 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pardubice in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 46%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Baník Ostrava) and 50% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Pardubice in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 50% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pardubice run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Baník Ostrava 1-4 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Pardubice 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Pardubice attack 1.16 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 38%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.