Artis 1-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska to take on Artis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Artis have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 outings — a 0.25 PPG return. Last five: L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sigma Olomouc's 1.30 PPG return is 1.05 points per game ahead of Artis's 0.25 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Artis 75% and Sigma Olomouc 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Artis 75% | Sigma Olomouc 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.47 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.952 / defence 1.413 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.945 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.410. Data: 2 Artis games / 32 Sigma Olomouc games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Artis 30% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 47%. Fair-value odds: Artis 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Sigma Olomouc 2.13. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Artis 75% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 30% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Artis 1.47 / Sigma Olomouc 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.952 / def 1.413 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.945 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Sigma Olomouc xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Artis vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What was the final score in Artis vs Sigma Olomouc?
Artis 1 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Artis vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What competition is Artis vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Artis vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 30% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Artis and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Sigma Olomouc in?
Artis (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Artis's attack rating (0.95) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
30%
3.37
23%
4.29
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Artis xG
Total xG
3.35
1.88
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
5%
22.15
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Artis and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Artis and 1.88 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Artis have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Artis.
The Goals Picture
Artis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 2.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Artis and Sigma Olomouc runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Artis
0
Draws
1
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Sigma Olomouc?
From 1 meetings on record, Artis have won 0, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Artis and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Artis 1-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Artis and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Artis at 75%, Sigma Olomouc at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Artis and 100% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Artis's games and 75% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Artis vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Artis's matches and 100% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Artis and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Artis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Artis 1-2 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Artis 1.47 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.88 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Artis attack 0.95 / defence 1.41 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Artis 30% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 47%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Artis 75%, Sigma Olomouc 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Artis's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Artis conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.