Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Henan Jianye to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 June 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.925 / defence 1.027 | Henan Jianye attack 0.887 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.335. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Yunnan Yukun games / 44 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Jun 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.23 / Henan Jianye 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.925 / def 1.027 | Henan Jianye attack 0.887 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 26 June 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Yunnan Yukun 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 37% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Henan Jianye away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.65
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.44
1.22
Henan Jianye xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.22 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Henan Jianye?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.