Wuhan Zall 1-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 40%, yet in-form Hebei Zhongji provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Wuhan Zall welcome Hebei Zhongji to Suzhou City Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Zall stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Wuhan Zall have gone 1W 3D 2L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Hebei Zhongji's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Hebei Zhongji 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Zall trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 62% versus Hebei Zhongji 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wuhan Zall 46% | Hebei Zhongji 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.10 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.880 / defence 1.143 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.555 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.279. Data: 13 Wuhan Zall games / 13 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 40% | Draw 36% | Hebei Zhongji 24%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Hebei Zhongji 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hebei Zhongji (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 67% | Hebei Zhongji 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 40% | Draw 36% | Hebei Zhongji 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.10 / Hebei Zhongji 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.880 / def 1.143 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.555 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Hebei Zhongji xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 40% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 1 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (0.88) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
40%
2.52
36%
2.78
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
1.91
0.81
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 0.81 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 1W 7D 5L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 6W 4D 3L from 13 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hebei Zhongji are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hebei Zhongji's season.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Zall are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.85 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 1W 7D 5L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Hebei Zhongji's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.00 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Wuhan Zall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 67%, Hebei Zhongji 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wuhan Zall) and 33% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 50%; Wuhan Zall have failed to score in 33% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 17% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Regular Season - 8, as Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.10 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.81 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.56 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 40% | Draw 36% | Hebei Zhongji 24%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 46%, Hebei Zhongji 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hebei Zhongji arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.