Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host Chongqing Tongliang Long at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 3W 2D 5L at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Wuhan Three Towns) versus 1.10 (Chongqing Tongliang Long). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wuhan Three Towns, 1 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 68% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 58% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.41 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.877 / defence 0.960 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.790 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.347. Data: 48 Wuhan Three Towns games / 19 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 27%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.70. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.41 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.877 / def 0.960 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.790 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 45% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 0W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.88x the league average against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.56
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.43
1.02
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.02 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 3W 7D 9L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form line: 7W 8D 4L from 19 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Three Towns.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.21 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 8D 4L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.22 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 56%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 44% (Chongqing Tongliang Long).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 56% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 44% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.41 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Tongliang Long landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 27%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 58%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chongqing Tongliang Long arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Wuhan Three Towns winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Chongqing Tongliang Long (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.