Tianjin Teda 0-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 June 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.80 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 3 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.99 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.764 / defence 0.838 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.723 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.419. Tianjin Teda's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.723 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Tianjin Teda games / 43 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 16% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 61%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.64. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
SHANGHAI SIPG lead the H2H ledger, but Tianjin Teda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 16% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.99 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.764 / def 0.838 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.723 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
2.05
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 14 June 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 16% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.76) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
16%
6.18
23%
4.31
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.03
2.05
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
6.18
16%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
2%
47.90
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 2.05 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 22D 16L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 39W 11D 13L from 63 games, 2.03 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (12W 14D 6L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 5D 7L from 32 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.84 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 13L in their last 63 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 56% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 0-3 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.99 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.05 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 2.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.76 / defence 0.84 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.72 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 16% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 61%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.54. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.