Tianjin Teda 0-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 2.00 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 49% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.93 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.081 / defence 0.929 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.125 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.171. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Tianjin Teda games / 38 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 25% | Draw 36% | SHANGHAI SIPG 39%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 25% | Draw 36% | SHANGHAI SIPG 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.93 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.081 / def 0.929 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.125 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.22
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 25% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (1.08) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
25%
4.07
36%
2.78
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.15
1.22
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.22 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 13D 23L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 32W 11D 12L from 55 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 12W 8D 7L from 27 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.65 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 32W 11D 12L in their last 55 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.33 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Tianjin Teda) and 52% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 37%; SHANGHAI SIPG in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 52% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 52% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 0-0 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.93 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.12 / defence 0.71, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 25% | Draw 36% | SHANGHAI SIPG 39%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, SHANGHAI SIPG 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.