Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 43%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Qingdao Youth Island at Shenzhen Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at Shenzhen Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Youth Island — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Qingdao Youth Island have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
It is worth noting that Qingdao Youth Island have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 60% and Qingdao Youth Island 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Qingdao Youth Island 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.033 / defence 1.163 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.027 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 47 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 43% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 35%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 43% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.033 / def 1.163 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.027 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Qingdao Youth Island xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 43% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 4W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
43%
2.33
22%
4.49
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.48
1.64
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.64 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 5D 29L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (15W 19D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 10W 3D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 13W 5D 29L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 15W 19D 13L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.43 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
4
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sichuan Jiuniu at 74%, Qingdao Youth Island at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 52% (Qingdao Youth Island). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 65% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 52% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sichuan Jiuniu run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Youth Island 3-0 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.64 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 43% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 35%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Qingdao Youth Island 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Qingdao Youth Island arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.