Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 38%, yet in-form Sichuan Jiuniu provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Sichuan Jiuniu at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cangzhou Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sichuan Jiuniu — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% | Sichuan Jiuniu 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.28 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.786 / defence 1.165 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.762 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.362. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 17 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 35%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sichuan Jiuniu (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 30% | Sichuan Jiuniu 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.28 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.786 / def 1.165 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.762 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 July 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 38% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.79) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.64
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.49
1.21
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.21 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 4W 3D 10L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 0.88 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (3W 0D 5L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.94 PPG overall record — Sichuan Jiuniu travel well.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.00 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 2 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%, Sichuan Jiuniu 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 50% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 38%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Sichuan Jiuniu finished level at 1-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.28 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.76 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 35%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59%, Sichuan Jiuniu 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.