Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-2 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 4W 4D 2L at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.30 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 2 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% and Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.726 / defence 0.988 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.028 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.128. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 22 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Draw 31% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Draw 31% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.726 / def 0.988 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.028 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 7 July 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 37% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (3 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (1.03x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.24
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.40
1.15
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.15 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 12L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.40 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.40 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 13% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 73% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.73 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Draw 31% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 32%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.