Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cangzhou Stadium plays host to Shijiazhuang Y. J. versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 16 June 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Cangzhou Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Qingdao Jonoon are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W, Qingdao Jonoon 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.24 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.885 / defence 1.185 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.630 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.416. Data: 44 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 44 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Jonoon (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.24 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.885 / def 1.185 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.630 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Qingdao Jonoon xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 39% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.89x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.63x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.22
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.29
1.06
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.06 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 7D 15L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.93 for Qingdao Jonoon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 4D 11L from 15 away games — 0.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.27 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Jonoon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon?
Qingdao Jonoon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60%, Qingdao Jonoon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 33% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 33% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Jonoon defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.24 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.06 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.63 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.