Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome Beijing Guoan to Wuhua Hengpi Football Town. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 June 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 1.70 PPG versus Beijing Guoan's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% versus Beijing Guoan 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Beijing Guoan 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.13 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.714 / defence 1.035 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.258 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.161. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 19 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 45%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 2.22. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Beijing Guoan 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.13 / Beijing Guoan 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.714 / def 1.035 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.258 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Beijing Guoan xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 09:30 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 27% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.71) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.54
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.64
1.51
Beijing Guoan xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
6%
16.80
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.51 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 6D 10L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.64 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2024, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%, Beijing Guoan 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 46% for Beijing Guoan.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 36%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 36% of games; Beijing Guoan in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 36% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 46% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 6, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.13 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.51 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.26 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 45%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Beijing Guoan 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.