Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.66 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.025 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.881 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.209. Data: 4 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 4 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 18% | Draw 40% | Shandong Luneng 42%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.56 | Draw 2.50 | Shandong Luneng 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 40% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 18% | Draw 40% | Shandong Luneng 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.66 / Shandong Luneng 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.809 / def 1.025 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.881 / def 1.024 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Shandong Luneng xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 14 May 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 18% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 42% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.66. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
18%
5.44
40%
2.51
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
1.75
1.09
Shandong Luneng xG
5.44
18%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 18.9 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.09 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng finished level at 2-2 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.66 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.09 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 18% | Draw 40% | Shandong Luneng 42%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 40%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.