Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 2W 1D 7L at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Dalian Aerbin are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W, Dalian Aerbin 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Dalian Aerbin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.240 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.995 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.251. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 40 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 43%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Dalian Aerbin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Dalian Aerbin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 / Dalian Aerbin 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.781 / def 1.240 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.995 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 24% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 2W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.99x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
24%
4.14
33%
3.07
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
19.37
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.54 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 18W 8D 29L from 55 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 25L across 55 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.24 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 9W 4D 15L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 9W 5D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.31 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Dalian Aerbin's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 5-1 on 1 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 64% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 64% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.24 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 43%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Shenzhen Ruby FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Dalian Aerbin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.