SHANGHAI SIPG 4-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., with 1 draws in between.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The historical record gives SHANGHAI SIPG a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 3.31 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.512 / defence 0.929 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.881 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.437. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.512 — their λ of 3.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 43 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 78% | Draw 13% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 9%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 | Draw 7.69 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (3.31 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 78% | Draw 13% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 67% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 3.31 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.512 / def 0.929 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.881 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
67%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
SHANGHAI SIPG 4 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 78% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.31. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.3%), 3-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
78%
1.29
13%
7.54
9%
10.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
3 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
4.48
1.18
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.29
78%
Home win
7.54
13%
Draw
10.95
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
4%
27.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 3.31 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.18 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 4.48.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 64 games, going 39W 11D 14L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (19W 18D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 19W 6D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (11W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 games (2.00 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.97 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 53%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 66% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 66% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 3.31 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 xG, a combined 4.48. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.51 / defence 0.93 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 78% | Draw 13% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 9%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.