Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yunnan Yukun make the trip to Shanghai Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Yunnan Yukun in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Yunnan Yukun and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Yunnan Yukun half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 67% and Yunnan Yukun 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shanghai Shenhua 69% | Yunnan Yukun 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.75 xG and Yunnan Yukun 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.091 / defence 1.272 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.126 / defence 1.475. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.475 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Shanghai Shenhua games / 55 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 54% | Draw 18% | Yunnan Yukun 28%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.85 | Draw 5.56 | Yunnan Yukun 3.57. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.76 combined xG gives a 85% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 81%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 54% | Draw 18% | Yunnan Yukun 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 81% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.75 / Yunnan Yukun 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.091 / def 1.272 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.126 / def 1.475 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Yunnan Yukun xG
81%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 54% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 28% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (3 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (1.09) and Yunnan Yukun's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (1.13x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.5%), 3-2 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
54%
1.85
18%
5.50
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
4.76
2.01
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.85
54%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.23
19%
BTTS No
5.33
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
6%
15.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
2%
56.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 2.01 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 4.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 30W 12D 13L from 55 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 20L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 16W 6D 6L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yunnan Yukun's away record stands at 6W 8D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.75 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 75%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 games (1.85 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.93 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
1
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun?
From 3 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Shanghai Shenhua, 82% for Yunnan Yukun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Shanghai Shenhua and 71% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 82% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 71% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.