Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 25 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 8W 2D 0L at Shanghai Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Shanghai Shenhua's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Tianjin Teda in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 1W, Tianjin Teda 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 50% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.33 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.357 / defence 0.929 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.082 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.350. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Shanghai Shenhua games / 44 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 20% | Tianjin Teda 21%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Tianjin Teda 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 20% | Tianjin Teda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.33 / Tianjin Teda 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.357 / def 0.929 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.082 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 25 June 2025 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 59% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (1.36) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.08x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.06
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.69
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
10%
10.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
2%
48.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.36 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 39W 12D 9L from 60 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 16L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 20W 7D 3L from 30 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 11W 6D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 games (2.15 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.23 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 53%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 57% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 57% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 3-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.33 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 20% | Tianjin Teda 21%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.