Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Puwan Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Puwan Stadium.
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shanghai Shenhua at 1.80 PPG versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 54% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 46% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.15 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.158 / defence 0.720 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.785 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.102. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Shanghai Shenhua games / 19 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 72% | Draw 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.39 | Draw 5.00 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 72% | Draw 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 42% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.15 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.158 / def 0.720 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.785 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
42%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 72% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 8% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (1.16) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 3-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
72%
1.39
20%
5.11
8%
11.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.78
0.62
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
11.76
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
39%
2.59
1%
101.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.62 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 10W 7D 5L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 13W 5D 4L from 22 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.68 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (6W 4D 1L).
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.14 scored and 0.77 conceded. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking output running into Shanghai Shenhua's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 54%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 36% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 36%; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 36% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 36% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.15 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.62 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.36, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 72% | Draw 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 8%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 46%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.68 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.