Shanghai Shenhua 2-2 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shanghai Shenhua face Chongqing Tongliang Long.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua welcome Chongqing Tongliang Long to Shanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.258 / defence 1.092 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.788 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.189. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack rating of 1.258 — their 1.61 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Chongqing Tongliang Long bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shanghai Shenhua's projected output down. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 40 games and Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 10.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 51% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.96 | Draw 3.98 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.18. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 51% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.258 / def 1.092 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.788 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long FAQs
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 2 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 51% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 40 games and Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.98
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.63
1.02
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
20.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.02 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shanghai Shenhua (Home) vs Chongqing Tongliang Long (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.26 / defence 1.09 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.79 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 51% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.