Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Shanghai Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Shanghai Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 2 for Changchun Yatai and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Changchun Yatai trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 44% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 42% | Changchun Yatai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 3.06 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.474 / defence 0.597 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.064 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.330. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.474 — their λ of 3.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.597 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Shanghai Shenhua games / 48 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 81% | Draw 12% | Changchun Yatai 7%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Changchun Yatai 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Changchun Yatai 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 81% | Draw 12% | Changchun Yatai 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 55% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 3.06 / Changchun Yatai 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.474 / def 0.597 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.064 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Changchun Yatai xG
55%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 81% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Record (7 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 2W | Draws 3 | Changchun Yatai 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.47x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 3.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
81%
1.24
12%
8.12
7%
14.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.90
0.84
Changchun Yatai xG
1.24
81%
Home win
8.12
12%
Draw
14.64
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
5%
21.31
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 3.06 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.84 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 48 games, going 29W 11D 8L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.19 PPG from 48 outings (14W 15D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.46 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 29W 11D 8L in their last 48 games (2.04 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 14W 15D 19L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.12 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 42%, Changchun Yatai 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 50% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 54% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 50% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Changchun Yatai 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Changchun Yatai 3-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 3.06 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.84 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.47 / defence 0.60 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.06 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 81% | Draw 12% | Changchun Yatai 7%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 42%, Changchun Yatai 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.