Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 April 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Shanghai Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shanghai Shenhua 1.10 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 2 for Changchun Yatai and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 54% versus Changchun Yatai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 39% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.897 / defence 0.815 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.137 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.293. Data: 36 Shanghai Shenhua games / 36 Changchun Yatai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 32% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 34%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Changchun Yatai 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 32% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 / Changchun Yatai 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.897 / def 0.815 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.137 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Changchun Yatai xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 32% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Record (4 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 2 | Changchun Yatai 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.90x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
32%
3.08
33%
3.01
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.36
1.20
Changchun Yatai xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.20 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 56 games, going 24W 18D 14L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.48 PPG from 56 outings (22W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.61 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 14W 8D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 18D 14L in their last 56 games (1.61 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.79 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Changchun Yatai 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 68% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 61% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 68% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Changchun Yatai 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.20 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 32% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 34%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 39%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.