Shandong Luneng 2-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Shandong Luneng take on Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 30 July 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.00 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 0.67 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye (all games): 2W 5D 2L across 9 Super League outings this term — 1.22 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.78 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.00 vs 1.22) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 44% versus Henan Jianye 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shandong Luneng 33% | Henan Jianye 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.01 xG and Henan Jianye 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.018 / defence 0.909 | Henan Jianye attack 0.692 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 0.960 / away 1.168. Data: 9 Shandong Luneng games / 9 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 37% | Draw 41% | Henan Jianye 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.70 | Draw 2.44 | Henan Jianye 4.55. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 25% | Henan Jianye 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 37% | Draw 41% | Henan Jianye 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.01 / Henan Jianye 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.018 / def 0.909 | Henan Jianye attack 0.692 / def 1.033 | league avg home 0.960 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Henan Jianye xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 37% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 22% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.69x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.69
41%
2.45
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
1.74
0.73
Henan Jianye xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.45
41%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.73 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 3D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 67%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.50 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 25%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Shandong Luneng and 25% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 50%; Henan Jianye in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 25% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Henan Jianye 2-0 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.01 xG and Henan Jianye 0.73 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Henan Jianye attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 37% | Draw 41% | Henan Jianye 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 33%, Henan Jianye 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.