Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (94%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shandong Luneng face Hebei Zhongji.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shandong Luneng welcome Hebei Zhongji to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 12 November 2022 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shandong Luneng's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hebei Zhongji — last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0W 0D 10L from their last 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 2.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Shandong Luneng hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2022, ended Shandong Luneng 7–0 Hebei Zhongji — a Shandong Luneng win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shandong Luneng and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Hebei Zhongji 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 56% | Hebei Zhongji 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 4.09 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.549 / defence 0.646 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.538 / defence 1.807. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.324. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack rating of 1.549 — their 4.09 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.807 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shandong Luneng's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.538 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.46. Shandong Luneng have a tight defence (rating 0.646), which is pulling Hebei Zhongji's projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 38 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 38.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 94% | Draw 4% | Hebei Zhongji 1%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.06 | Draw 22.62 | Hebei Zhongji 81.30. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (94%) — a 90pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 4.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 94% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 4.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 40% (last 10 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 94% | Draw 4% | Hebei Zhongji 1% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% (Under 17%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Shandong Luneng 4.09 / Hebei Zhongji 0.46 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.549 / def 0.646 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.538 / def 1.807 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (94%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.46
Hebei Zhongji xG
36%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 94% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 1% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.55) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.81), the model arrives at 4.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 38 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.1%), 5-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
94%
1.06
4%
22.62
1%
81.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
5 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
4.55
0.46
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.06
94%
Home win
22.62
4%
Draw
81.30
1%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
63%
1.58
2%
59.74
Win to Nil
60%
1.68
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 4-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 4.09 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.46 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 4.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 94%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 46 games, going 34W 8D 4L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.61 PPG from 46 outings (7W 7D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.78 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 19W 3D 0L across their last 22 home games, a 2.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.14 points per game from their last 22 away games (0W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hebei Zhongji's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.59 scored and 2.30 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 34W 8D 4L in their last 46 games (2.39 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 32L in their last 46 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.73 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Aug 2022, when Shandong Luneng won Hebei Zhongji 0-7 Shandong Luneng.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 November 2022: Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 46%, Hebei Zhongji 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shandong Luneng) and 64% (Hebei Zhongji). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 41% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 64% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 73% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hebei Zhongji 4-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 4.09 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.46 xG, a combined 4.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.55 / defence 0.65 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.54 / defence 1.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 94% | Draw 4% | Hebei Zhongji 1%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 94%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 56%, Hebei Zhongji 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.