Shandong Luneng 4-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Shandong Luneng's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Changchun Yatai in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 54% versus Changchun Yatai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.02 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.980 / defence 0.852 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.839 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.224. Data: 17 Shandong Luneng games / 17 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 36% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 28%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Changchun Yatai 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shandong Luneng 60% | Changchun Yatai 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 36% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.02 / Changchun Yatai 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.980 / def 0.852 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.839 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Changchun Yatai xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 36% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.84x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
36%
2.77
36%
2.80
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
1.90
0.88
Changchun Yatai xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.88 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 22 games, going 15W 6D 1L for 2.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 9W 2D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.41 scored and 0.91 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Changchun Yatai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Changchun Yatai in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 6D 1L in their last 22 games (2.32 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.64 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 54%, Changchun Yatai 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shandong Luneng) and 64% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Shandong Luneng's games and 64% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 64% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 4-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.02 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.88 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 36% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 28%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 50%, Changchun Yatai 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.