Qingdao Youth Island 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Qingdao Youth Island 0W, Shanghai Shenhua 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 0.69 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.719 / defence 1.178 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.997 / defence 0.602. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.394. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.602 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 Qingdao Youth Island games / 46 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 15% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 15% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 0.69 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.719 / def 1.178 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.997 / def 0.602 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Shanghai Shenhua xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 15% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.72x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.00x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
15%
6.72
26%
3.92
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.33
1.64
Shanghai Shenhua xG
6.72
15%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
3%
34.52
30%
3.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.64 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Qingdao Youth Island 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Youth Island 0-1 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 0.69 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.72 / defence 1.18 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.00 / defence 0.60, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 15% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.