Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Qingdao Youth Island welcome Shandong Luneng to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.688 / defence 1.172 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.085 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.399. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Qingdao Youth Island games / 39 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 17% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 59%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Shandong Luneng 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 17% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 / Shandong Luneng 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.688 / def 1.172 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.085 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Shandong Luneng xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 17% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.69) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
17%
5.77
24%
4.20
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.63
1.78
Shandong Luneng xG
5.77
17%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
3%
34.17
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.78 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Qingdao Youth Island's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.78 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.69 / defence 1.17 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 17% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 59%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.