Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Chengdu Better City encounter.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island host Chengdu Better City at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Youth Island's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Chengdu Better City have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Chengdu Better City away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chengdu Better City — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Chengdu Better City 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 7.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Qingdao Youth Island 0–7 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 61% versus Chengdu Better City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 61% | Chengdu Better City 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.51 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.942 / defence 1.320 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.104 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chengdu Better City's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 28 games and Chengdu Better City's last 58.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 31% | Draw 23% | Chengdu Better City 46%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.26 | Draw 4.30 | Chengdu Better City 2.17. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 70% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 50% (last 10 away games).

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