Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Wuhan Three Towns — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Wuhan Three Towns's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.10 for Wuhan Three Towns. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) — Qingdao Jonoon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wuhan Three Towns in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have the stronger record — 3 wins to Qingdao Jonoon's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Wuhan Three Towns — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 41% versus Wuhan Three Towns 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Wuhan Three Towns 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.47 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.904 / defence 1.206 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.903 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.321. Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 54 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 54.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 37%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.61 | Draw 4.04 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.47 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.904 / def 1.206 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.903 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 38% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.90x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.90x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 54 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
38%
2.61
25%
4.04
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.91
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.44 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 11D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 1.43 PPG from 54 outings (21W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 27 away games (11W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.46 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 65%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 14W 11D 29L in their last 54 games (0.98 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 21W 14D 19L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.52 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 48%, Wuhan Three Towns 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 63% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 78% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 63% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 85% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.47 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 37%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Wuhan Three Towns 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.