Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Nantong Zhiyun welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 June 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.95 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.611 / defence 1.251 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.713 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.293. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Nantong Zhiyun games / 10 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 33% | Qingdao Jonoon 39%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Qingdao Jonoon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 33% | Qingdao Jonoon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.95 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.611 / def 1.251 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.713 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 28% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating (0.61) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.05
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.10
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.15 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Jonoon?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Nantong Zhiyun defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.95 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.61 / defence 1.25 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 33% | Qingdao Jonoon 39%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nantong Zhiyun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.