Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre plays host to Meizhou Kejia versus Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Meizhou Kejia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 0.90 for Dalian Zhixing. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Meizhou Kejia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 68% versus Dalian Zhixing 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 75% | Dalian Zhixing 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.69 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.812 / defence 1.371 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.799 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.462. Data: 58 Meizhou Kejia games / 28 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 40% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 36%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Zhixing 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Dalian Zhixing 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 40% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.69 / Dalian Zhixing 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.812 / def 1.371 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.799 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Dalian Zhixing xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 2 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 40% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.81x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.80x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.17
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.29
1.60
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.60 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 5D 18L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Dalian Zhixing carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 4W 1D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 5D 18L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 0.93 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing?
From 2 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 71%, Dalian Zhixing 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 93% for Meizhou Kejia and 43% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 57% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 93% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 43% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 29, as Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.69 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.60 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.81 / defence 1.37 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 40% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 36%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 75%, Dalian Zhixing 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.