Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Henan Jianye (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Henan Jianye face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Henan Jianye have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Henan Jianye and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 55% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 47% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.750 / defence 0.880 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.733 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.329. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Henan Jianye games / 53 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 55% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 55% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Henan Jianye 1.62 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.750 / def 0.880 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.733 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye 0 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 55% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 5W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.75) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.92
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.48
0.86
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
26.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.86 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 16D 20L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 13W 13D 27L from 53 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.26 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 7D 15L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.02 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 17W 16D 20L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 13W 13D 27L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.65 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Henan Jianye) and 62% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Henan Jianye's games and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Henan Jianye 0-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.86 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.75 / defence 0.88 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 55% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Shijiazhuang Y. J. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 47%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.26 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.